"ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0248 UTC/02 FEBRUARY 2024 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

"A CME was observed from 01/0800 UT. This CME is expected to pass
mostly above the Earth, however a glancing blow is possible either
late UT day 03-Feb or early UT day 04-Feb to cause possible G1-G2
geomagnetic storming. A coronal hole wind stream may also contribute
to enhanced geomagnetic activity.

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FROM 04-05 FEBRUARY 2024."

Seven new sunspot groups emerged this reporting week, but solar
activity was lower. One new spot appeared on January 26, two more on
January 28, three more on January 30 and one more on January 31.

Then on February 1 five new sunspot groups emerged, and the daily
sunspot number rose to 113, far above the average for the previous
seven days.

Average daily sunspot number dropped from 130.6 to 71.6, and average
daily solar flux declined from 173.3 to 145.4.

Average planetary A index changed from 7.4 to 6.9, while middle
latitude averages shifted from 5.1 to 5.6.

What is the outlook for the next month? Looks like a modest peak in
solar flux at 175 on February 20.

Predicted solar flux is 135 on February 2, 140 on February 3-5, 145
on February 6-8, then a jump to 165 on February 9-11, 170 on
February 12, 165 on February 13-15, 170 on February 16-19, 175 on
February 20, then 170, 165, 160, 150, 140, 135 and 140 on February
21-27, 145 on February 28-29, and 150 on March 1-2, then 155 on
March 3-4, 160 on March 5, and 165 on March 6-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 2-3, then 14, 20 and 8
on February 4-6, then 5 on February 7-16, 8 on February 17-18, 5 on
February 19-24, then 10, 12 and 10 on February 25-27, and 5 on
February 28 through March 2, then 10 on March 3-4, and 5 on March 5
through the middle of the month.